Before I get into Card’s works, first I want to say that despite his personal beliefs, I do feel that people can change or make mistakes. Simply because Card was scrutinized for his personal beliefs and comments (which I don’t endorse), I think we would be doing ourselves a disservice by not objectively analyzing his works to find clues about his predictions on geopolitics. Below, I will provide quotes from Ender’s Shadow and Shadow of the Hegemon. It will astound you the foresight that Card had in 1997 and 2000 relating to geopolitics considering these books were published before the onset of the War on Terrorism, the spy-state, and Russia’s unveiling of their recent ambitious geopolitical moves. Card’s stories are also…pretty good as far as an exploration of the human condition, family, friendships, etc. Though science-fiction probably gets the association of being a very male space with the negative connotation of fantasizing or projecting power-fantasy, I can assure you, that’s not true, and also that Card’s series has a diverse cast, and also one of the strongest female characters in a series I’ve read in Petra Arkanian. Though, there’s always room for criticism. If you ever see the Ender’s Game film, I can assure you that the book is better and the film’s writers (not the actors) ruined the possibility of a more expanded universe which parallels certain aspects of our real-world. Hollywood politics? Further, we have to realize that science-fiction often takes real world issues and simply speculates on their outcomes, particularly involving emerging technology. We can in many ways learn from certain science-fiction works.

But, how did Orson Scott Card predict Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions, similarly to, but alternatively to how Robert Heinlein predicted the West attempting to merge with Russia (as read in Starship Troppers with the Russo Anglo American Alliance).

I will get to the point.

A character in Ender’s Shadow, named Bean, is a boy with genetically modified intelligence and an IQ which surpasses that of the series’ hero, Ender Wiggins. A street urchin forced to eek out a meager living on the chaotic streets of a dystopian Rotterdam, Netherlands (which in real-life is the end location of the developing Belt-and-Road initiative – strange how Card predicted this)….the boy, Bean, after surviving a Lord of The Flies situation between bands of roaming and abandoned street children, is taken in by a Catholic Nun who is working for the International Fleet (think the United Nations). Her job is to find special children able to be sent to Battle School, a school which trains genius children in adult war-games in order to become future commanders of Earth’s next fight with an alien nemesis (note: you can disregard the science fiction background about aliens in my argument). Bean while at Battle School, leaning about geopolitics, and assesses the world’s political situation for the reader.

While Bean reads, on page 400, it is said, “When the Buggers (i.e., a derogatory term for the aliens that Earth is fighting) showed up, China had just emerged as the dominant world power, economically and militarily, having finally reunited itself as a democracy. The North Americans and Europeans played at being China’s “big brothers”, but the economic balance had finally shifted.” (Card, 1999). Further, on page 400, Card (1999) states, “What Bean saw as the driving force of history, however, was the resurgent Russian Empire. Where the Chinese simply took for granted that they were and should be the center of the universe, the Russians, led by a series of ambitious demagogues and authoritarian generals, felt that history had cheated them out of their rightful place, it was Russia that forced the creation of the New Warsaw Pact, bringing its effective borders back to the peak of Soviet power – and beyond, for this time Greece was its ally, and an intimated Turkey was neutralized. Europe was on the verge of being neutralized, the Russian dream of hegemony from the Pacific to the Atlantic at last within reach.”

How does this relate to Aleksandr Dugin’s Eurasianism strategy? The shortest way to describe it is that he wants to Russia to expand back to its Soviet territorial heights, but Dugin mixes a combination of esoteric thought and geopolitical maneuvering often through an ideological analysis of the “fallen” West.

From these quotes from Ender’s Shadow, it does sound very familiar to what is going on now in the real-world under Trump’s foreign policy, which on the surface feeds into a sense of right-wing isolationism, or even to liberal pacifism, or pacifism regardless of political affiliation (not all Republicans are warhawks), but in another light it seems as if Trump is purposely antagonizing the balance-of-power for reasons unknown. A very clever for “every action is an equal reaction” approach by Trump. For example, by challenging NATO members to meet their minimum contribution requirements, if they do meet these it raises his political perception among his base, but if nations refuse to, or simply can’t pay, it hurts the alliance as a whole and he’s able to placate the Kremlin.

We have to remember, that many of these NATO countries suffered through a Eurozone economic crisis while also providing military support to US coalition forces, and, took on the humanist task of permitting refugees from Middle East instability. By withdrawing from a leadership positions and shaming the credibility of US foreign policy it creates an opportunistic void in which a hungry Putin regime can fill. From Trump’s public shaming and attempted embarrassment of foreign leaders in NATO, i.e., our allies; to his sanctions on NATO-member, Turkey, which will only push the Turks closer to Russia, which was the case in the Cold War as the Turks played both sides, and this provides the Russians will Black Sea access to to the Mediterranean, and pulling troops out of Syria and Afghanistan, it seems as if Trump is going down the list of every move to tilt the balance-of-power to Russia. But why? Why would Trump create an opportunity for another superpower to make grand acquisitions on the “Grand Chessboard”?

Things teetering conspiracy comes to mind, yet, not really if we understand the complex historical events which lead to events such as World War II. It is known public record that many in the United States and British establishment helped fund our enemies in their infancy, or led policies of appeasement such as that of Neville Chamberlain regarding Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland. In theory, these moves by the US and UK elite to throw secretive financial support to people such as Hitler, or to earlier movements such as the Bolsheviks before WWI, helped to create the justification for eventual Allied intervention. By Trump pulling out of the Middle East, challenging NATO, and presenting the most favorable policy to the Israel state in modern times despite human rights concerns of the Palestinians, it seems as if Trump is a type of “Chaos Agent”, but whose allegiance once you go down this hole is hard to discern. Is he actively while passively assisting Russia on its “Third Rome” dreams by permitting the Russian Government to take the spiritual baton as champion of the Holy Land away from the “fallen West”?

Is Trump on the surface combating Chinese intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices, yet, behind the scenes supporting China by proxy of his appeasement of Russia, in which these two powers are actively engaged in the emerging “Eurasian Superhighway” of the Belt & Road Initiative? Is Trump simply laying the dynamite of the “grand showdown” between powers, which on the surface will seem ideological or a clash of civilizations, but really be a way to usher in a world of less nations, a new monetary system, and larger power-blocs that rise from the ashes of chaos like the symbolism found in the ancient Phoenix symbol? It sounds odd, but if you were tell a farmer in 1902, that the United States would be the sole Western superpower, with dollar hegemony, a permanent place in European politics, and overseeing an international body called the United Nations, that farmer would call you crazy. The truth of the matter, regardless of outcome, is that new systems come, and with the Cold War over, and the United States taking the burden as “problem child” in a world of global mitigation and anti-terror operations, we live in a time where new powers will rise, thus current political & economic realities will change.

In Shadow of the Hegemon by Card (2000) it is said, “Over a million Indians made it out of India before the Chinese sealed the borders. Out of a population of a billion and a half, that was far too few. At least ten times that million were transported over the next year, from India to the cold lands of Manchuria and the high deserts of Sinkiang” (p. 427). “As if this vast redrawing of the world’s map were no enough, Russia announced that it had joined China as its ally, and that it considered the nations of eastern Europe that were not loyal members of the New Warsaw Pact to the provinces in rebellion. Without firing a single shot, Russia was able, simply by promising not to be as dreadful as overlord as China, to rewrite the Warsaw Pact until it was more or less the constitution of an empire that included all of Europe east of Germany, Austria, and Italy in the South, and east of Sweden and Norway in the North” (p. 427-8). “The weary nations of western Europe were quick to “welcome” the “discipline” that Russia would bring to Europe, and Russia was immediately given full membership in the European Community. Because Russia now controlled the votes of more than half the members of that community, it would require constant tug of war to keep some semblance of independence, and rather than play that game, Great Britain, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal left the European Community. But even they took great pains to assure the Russian bear that this was purely over economic issues and they really welcome the renewed Russian interest in the West.” (p. 428). “In the Pacific, Japan, with its dominant fleet, could afford to stand firm; the other island nations that faced China across various not-so-wide bodies of water had no such luxury” (p. 428).

My last quote from Shadow of the Hegemon by Card (2000), deals interestingly with Muslim nations and how Muslim nations might be unrealized allies to the West and USA. “Indeed, the only force that stood firm against China and Russia while facing them across heavy defended borders were the Muslim nations. Iran generously forgot how threateningly Pakistani troops had loomed along their border in the month before India’s fall, and Arabs joined with Turks in Muslim solidarity against any Russian encroachment across the Caucus or into the vast steppes of central Asia. No one seriously thought that Muslim military might could stand for long against a serious attack from China, and Russia was only scarcely less dangerous, but the Muslims laid aside their grievances, trusted in Allah, and kept their borders bristling with the warning that this nettle would be hard to grasp” (p. 428-9).

Citations

Card, O. S. (2000). Shadow of the Hegemon. New York: Tor.

Card, O. S. (1999). Enders Shadow. New York: Tor.